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中國GDP數據的五大看點

China's two-track economy: 5 things to watch for in Q4 GDP

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核心提示:中國將在周二發布2015年第四季度的國內生產總值(GDP)數字,當前各方越來越擔心中國經濟的健康狀況,這進而在全球市場引發沖擊波。

中國將在周二發布2015年第四季度的國內生產總值(GDP)數字,當前各方越來越擔心中國經濟的健康狀況,這進而在全球市場引發沖擊波。

官方數據顯示,中國經濟在2015年前三季度實際增長6.9%。這與政府“7%左右”的全年目標吻合,但將是自1990年以來最慢的全年增長。以下是周二數字中的五個看點:

名義增長。圍繞中國的“GDP平減指數”(對名義GDP進行通脹調整,得出政治上敏感的實際GDP增長率),人們抱有種種疑慮。GDP平減指數應該是最廣義的通脹指標,涵蓋所有商品和服務(包括非消費品)的價格變化。但是,如果第四季度的平減指數大幅偏離人們比較熟悉的中國通脹指標,投資者將懷疑中國國家統計局在數據上做手腳,因而把名義增長率視為反映經濟狀況的更可靠指標。

“其他”服務。隨著制造業和建筑業等傳統增長引擎失去動力,服務業目前是中國經濟增長的主要驅動因素。2015年第三季度,被稱為“其他”服務的一個大類(包括醫療、教育、法律、會計等等)提振了中國強勁得出人意料的整體增長數據。

然而,許多人懷疑這些數字,理由是缺乏具體細節、衡量服務價值的固有挑戰,以及對于中國統計人員捏造數據以達到預定目標的疑心。如果政府提供關于哪些服務增長最快的更多細節,它可能化解疑慮。不然的話,外界的疑心將會加重。

金融服務。除了“其他”服務外,金融服務在2015年前三個季度對中國的總體增長做出重大貢獻,因為去年上半年的國內股票牛市推動了交易傭金和其他券商服務。然而,基數效應將在第四季度顯現,因為這一輪牛市是從2014年11月前后開始的。

此外,2015年上半年股市大漲大跌期間急劇擴大的交易量,到了第四季度的回升期間下降了很多。如果數據顯示金融服務再次對增長做出強勁貢獻,那將加劇人們對中國經濟數據的懷疑。

工業產出。除季度GDP數據外,國家統計局還將在周二發布月度工業產出數據。12月的工廠調查顯示,中國苦苦掙扎的制造業在2015年大部分時間內下滑之后,可能已終于觸底。工業產出在10月降至近七年低點后,在11月強勁提速。如果12月繼續加速,那可能是一個表明中國的工廠已挺過最糟糕時期的跡象。

凈出口。2008至2014年期間,凈出口對全年GDP增長的貢獻為零或負值,突顯有關中國“出口導向型”經濟的傳統看法并不準確。但海關數據顯示,2015年期間,隨著大宗商品價格暴跌降低了中國的進口賬單,中國的商品貿易順差飆升至5950億美元的創紀錄高位。不過,海關數據并不包括服務貿易,因此GDP數字將揭示凈出口在多大程度上緩沖了國內經濟放緩。

China will release gross domestic product figures for the fourth quarter of 2015 on Tuesday amid rising concern about the health of the country’s economy — which in turn has reverberated through global markets.

China’s economy grew 6.9 per cent in real terms in the first three quarters, official data show. That is in line with the government’s full-year target of “around 7 per cent” but would be the slowest full-year growth since 1990. Here are five things to look for in Tuesday’s numbers:

Nominal growth. Suspicion surrounds China’s “GDP deflator”, the inflation gauge used to convert nominal GDP into the politically sensitive real GDP growth rate. The GDP deflator should be the broadest measures of inflation, capturing price changes for all goods and services, including non-consumption goods. But if the fourth-quarter deflator diverges sharply from more familiar gauges of Chinese inflation, investors will suspect that China’s stats bureau is cooking the books and look to nominal growth as a more reliable indicator of the state of the economy.

‘Other’ services. As traditional growth engines such as manufacturing and construction wane, services are now the main drivers of China’s growth. In the third quarter, a broad category called “other” services — which includes healthcare, education, law, and accounting among others — boosted China’s unexpectedly strong headline growth figure.

Yet many are sceptical about these figures due to the lack of specifics, the inherent challenges of measuring the value of services, and suspicions that China’s statisticians fudge the data to meet predetermined targets. If the government provides more detail about which services are growing fastest, it could allay the scepticism. If not, doubts will grow.

Financial services. In addition to “other” services, financial services were a major contributor to overall growth through the first three quarters as China’s stock market boom early in the year drove trading commissions and other brokerage services. In the fourth quarter, base effects will start to kick in, however, as the stock market boom began around November 2014.

Moreover, the trading volumes that ramped up during the first half of the year’s rally and bust were far more muted during the fourth quarter recovery. Another strong growth contribution from financial services will fuel more data scepticism.

Industrial production. The statistics bureau will release monthly industrial output data alongside the quarterly GDP figures on Tuesday. Factory surveys for December indicated that China’s struggling manufacturing sector may have finally bottomed out after declining for most of 2015. Industrial production accelerated strongly in November after hitting a near seven-year low in October. If the acceleration continued in December, it may be a sign that the worst is over for China’s factories

Net exports. The contribution to annual GDP growth from net exports was zero or negative from 2008 to 2014, undermining the conventional wisdom about China’s “export-led” economy. But China’s merchandise trade surplus surged to a record of $595bn in 2015 as tumbling commodity prices lowered the country’s import bill, customs data show. Customs figures do not include services trade, however, so the GDP figures will reveal how much net exports cushioned the slowdown in the domestic economy.

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